To Take a Hit, or to Not Take a Hit: That Is Today's Question

I have had one of my best starts in FPL history, floating around the 10,000 mark for almost the entire season. As expected I have deviated here and there but a finish well within the top 10,000 looks very likely for me (remember, historically speaking most top managers enter and remain in the top 10,000 around game week 32).

My performance this year has been primarily based in my very conservative statistical approach which emphasizes long-term expected value and ignores flashy bandwagons as well as aggressive hits. This strategy has ultimately allowed me to finish in a very respectable position for every season in which I utilized this approach. Last year however − being the experimental personality type − I decided to test out a new gung-ho strategy which I can accurately describe in hindsight as a catastrophic failure. I finished just above 80,000 in what was my worst season in my 6 years of FPL. This finish was almost twice that of my first two seasons when I was still very new and uncertain of the rules. What did I learn during my experiment? Don't experiment!

I'm just joking of course. What I did learn was my capacity to successfully predict players point production is based more or less on my ability to successfully interpret numbers (I know it's not very sexy... but it sure does work!) 

After re-assessing my decision making process to understand where it was I had gone wrong it occurred to me that aggressive FPL players tend to have on thing in common; instincts. I have had the pleasure of seeing a handful of managers who seem to possess the ever so majestic ability to conjure up a decision out of thin air which seems down-right insane but for whatever reason works. They also manage to do this again, and again, and again... How do they do it? As of right now I really don't know. Maybe one day we will be able to model their decision making process 😉

So what's my point? Well it's quite simple, good ol' fashion humility. I went into last season thinking I could just radically change my strategy and finish as well as I usually do. That was clearly not the case. Therefore my lesson was two-fold (1) Identify and correct any signs of overconfidence and (2) Leverage your strengths. Now this doesn't seem like groundbreaking advice, because it's really not, but it took me experience through failure for me to figure this out. As such, I hope readers of this blog will take this into consideration as to not make the same mistake. 

Now I didn't just write all of the above to waste your time. My objective was to loosely lay out a framework to view this question through. If we now refer to the question in the title, I think it becomes quite obvious what the answer is: it depends. My strategy this year is based on 3-6 game projections in which I have created an option tree of possible transfers based on my research. I very rarely deviate from my option tree and my ability to succeed is firmly based on how many times I pick the best branch (so to speak). For example, a few weeks ago I opted to choose Sane over Son (ouch!)

So what does this mean for you? It's quite simple. Think about your strategy, then think about your tactics. Do you have a masterful plan waiting to be implemented? Or are you simply taking it one week at a time? Maybe 3-6 weeks at a time like myself. The answer to these questions should give you the necessary groundwork to decide whether or not taking hits is for you. 

For example, my team this week has two troubling injuries. I will not however take a hit for either player (surprise, surprise). This strategy has served me well in every season (except for last year, of course). Why you might ask? Because I have strategically set up this team with a balance of high value players (Doherty, Jimenez, Ings, Alexander-Arnold) with high-end explosive players (Sterling, Hazard, Salah and Sane). The fact of the matter is that the core of this team would require some major shifts as I don't see any viable replacements for these players (I don't fancy Digne). As such I will simply rely on my bench. This works well for me as I set up my bench to ensure at least two decent players will play.

In summation, the decision to take a hit extends beyond your current circumstances and will require you to understand whether it fits into your overall strategy. For me, I don't consider taking hits when mapping out my decisions so I simply take most injury setbacks on the chin. 

The beauty of this situation is if you stick to your strategy and execute well you will succeed. That is to say, it doesn't matter as much if you do or do not take a hit, it just matters whether or not it makes sense for you.