To Take a Hit, or to Not Take a Hit: That Is Today's Question
I have had one of my best starts in FPL history, floating around the 10,000 mark for almost the entire season. As expected I have deviated here and there but a finish well within the top 10,000 looks very likely for me (remember, historically speaking most top managers enter and remain in the top 10,000 around game week 32). My performance this year has been primarily based in my very conservative statistical approach which emphasizes long-term expected value and ignores flashy bandwagons as well as aggressive hits. This strategy has ultimately allowed me to finish in a very respectable position for every season in which I utilized this approach. Last year however − being the experimental personality type − I decided to test out a new gung-ho strategy which I can accurately describe in hindsight as a catastrophic failure. I finished just above 80,000 in what was my worst season in my 6 years of FPL. This finish was almost twice that of my first two seasons when I was still v
