Risk Aversion & Flexibility: How to Start the Premier League Season

I'm no fortune teller, but I do have one prediction to share with you. Chances are you won't own most of the in form players come game week one. And guess what? That's not a big deal, because neither will the majority of players. What is a big deal? Not being able to get in Lacazette when he starts the season off with a brace and an assist as well as Fabregas who goes and gets one goal and one assist. Now tell me that doesn't seem plausible? And what if you're not ready? Well then, it doesn't look too good for you...

Statistics and Fantasy Premier League go hand in hand. Most of the time that is. I see many players forget that analytics (such as expected goals) are only relevant over a large enough sample size (central limit theorem, normal distribution, blah, blah, blah). Keeping this in mind it really comes as no surprise the first few game weeks are usually rather erratic and hard to predict (think Capoue). So how do we factor in this randomness into our thought process?  More importantly, how do we leverage this information and get the edge against our competition?

It's actually very simple... We position ourselves wisely! Just like an investor, we are weary of the possible outcomes and keep our options open, and when an opportunity arises, we strike. The following is a team that will help illustrate my point;

Before I begin, keep in mind there is still $1 million in the bank. This team is different than most because of one fundamental reason, it is based on minimizing risk while making every other player easily accessible (as opposed to picking players based on expected points return). In other words, low risk and very liquid. I don't plan on owning Willian and Salah for the foreseeable future, but there inclusion allows me to own one attacker from the top six attacking teams (historically). That's right, this is where spreading the risk is extraordinary relevant (that is, when we have very little useful information to work with). I also managed to sneak in a Man Utd. defender and the Southampton duo of Cedric and Bertrand (based on fixtures and defensive form nearing the end of last season). The likes of Francis and Naughton rotate very well for the first 16 game weeks if necessary, after all, who knows, I may have struck gold with this team! But probably not... 

The second benefit of this team structure is just how easily I can transfer in every other relevant player (bar Sanchez, who I don't fancy anyways due to transfer speculations) in just one transfer. The likes of Kane, Pogba, Alonso and Aguero all boast very attractive opening fixtures. And they can all possibly score very well in the first week. If they do, I can simply transfer them in accordingly. 

The only real concern could be whether or not attackers are A) nailed and B) good coverage. I will address this below.

A) Sane is probably the biggest concern here, but then again, so is every other Man City attacker. The good news is Sane started 16 out of the possible 17 games to finish the season, and is the only winger on the team that can actually finish (I'm looking at you, Sterling). Considering Pep's strategy of overloading the wings to free the opposing winger, Sane is extraordinary important due to his eye on goal. Considering he is the only natural winger that can really fit this role, I personally don't see him as much of a risk. Hopefully this clears things up. Salah's name has also been thrown around as a player that may be eased in. I would suggest monitoring Liverpool's last preseason game, as the team fielded last year was also the same team that started the season. I expect Klopp to continue with this strategy.

B) I don't think there's much debate here, really. Every single player is expected to be heavily involved as long as there is no drastic change in attacking strategy (which is rare, so I highly doubt it). Lukaku and Lacazette will spearhead their respective teams, whilst the four midfielders are heavily relied on as a source of creativity as well as contributing with goals.

Now I am not writing this to convince you to pick these specific players. This is simply something I have come up with. There are many different combinations which will offer coverage from the top attacking teams. I am however writing this as a reminder that being too bold in the early stages is very risky and will likely lead to a scramble in order to fit in the relevant players. I am also suggesting that picking players based on expected return is meaningless due to a lack of relevant information as well as the small sample size of game weeks before most people wildcard (game week 4-6). 

To make my point clearer, it is very possible Spurs stink up Wembley while Man City score 10 goals in there first 3 games. Would anyone oppose this comment? It's certainly one out of many potential scenarios. In other words, picking one player from all of the big 6 clubs, versus focusing on specific players greatly lowers risk. And that's what starting the season is all about, risk aversion and flexibility. This is no time to throw a hail marry!

A final reminder; risk is completely subjective. Remember those nut jobs that shorted the housing market!? What I consider safe, you may consider risky, and vice versa. It ultimately depends on you.  

If you have any comments, questions and queries, leave me a comment below.